概要

In this second phase impact study, difference-in-difference analysis is used to assess the effects of 4C entry level standard implementation in Uganda and Vietnam, focusing on agronomic, socio-economic and environmental performance of farms; economic performance of 4C Units and managing entities; and comparison of farmers’ costs to benefits. Change over time of 54 indicators is compared between 4C verified farmers and control groups, followed by robust statistical analysis consisting of 2 different T-tests, 3 Propensity Score matching models and 3 types of regression models. Economically, 4C verified farms in Uganda have seen increased net income per unit coffee, however farms in Vietnam saw no significant improvements to productivity. Similarly, positive social effects were noted in Uganda such as improved dietary quality, but not in Vietnam. In neither country was environmental performance significantly improved. The majority of farmers intend to retain 4C verified status, indicating a favorable cost to benefit ratio, however many of those who indicate they do not want to retain their status cite the reason being too small an improvement in coffee price compared to investment. The authors propose 4C revisit their Theory of Change, either lowering the ambitions of the organisation, or implementing innovative methods to ensure that benefits of 4C verification are achieved more consistently.